columbia basin climate columbia basin climate

Both floods (Q100) and extreme 7-day low flows (7Q10) increase in intensity for most of the river sites simulated. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). To learn about our use of cookies and how you can manage your cookie settings, please see our Cookie Policy. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of other members of the CBCCSP research team at the UW including Lara Whitely Binder, Pablo Carrasco, Jeffrey Deems, Carrie Lee, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Tyler Kamstra, Jeremy Littell, Nathan Mantua, Edward Miles, Kristian Mickelson, Philip W. Mote, Erin Rogers, Eric Salath, Amy Snover, and Andrew Wood. Columbia Basin Water Hub - Living Lakes Canada 3099067 The regional report for the National Assessment was supported by two detailed water management studies focused on the CRB by Hamlet and Lettenmaier (Citation1999b) and Miles, Snover, Hamlet, Callahan and Fluharty (Citation2000). The CRBs cover an area over 87,000 miles 2, with an estimated volume of 50,000 miles 3, and cover about 36 percent of the state. The choice of the A1B scenario, however, was informed by the authors viewpoint that this scenario is an instructive and plausible scenario reflecting relatively little GHG mitigation until mid-century (similar to A2 until about 2050), followed by more effective GHG mitigation efforts in the second half of the twenty-first century as impacts intensify. RSUM[Traduit par la rdaction] Le projet de scnarios de changement climatique du bassin du Columbia (CBCCSP) a t conu comme une base de donnes hydrologiques complte pour appuyer les activits de planification, dvaluation des rpercussions et d'adaptation dans la rgion pacifique nordouest menes par une communaut d'utilisateurs diversifie disposant de capacits techniques varies dans une large gamme dchelles spatiales. Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. We use cookies to improve your website experience. As noted above, the study also supports planning efforts over a wide range of geographic scales. Statistics for hydrologic extreme events (as discussed above) are presented in a different format, shown in Fig. These products are available for all 77 climate scenarios listed in Table 1, as well as for the historical simulation. Three VIC model calibration parameters described above were varied in the optimization process, and six error metrics were used to define the objective function: squared correlation coefficient (R 2), NSE, the NSE of log-transformed data, annual volume error, mean hydrograph peak difference, RMSE, and number of sign changes in the simulated streamflow errors. Daily and monthly streamflow for each streamflow site are provided in two formats: a) raw VIC simulations, and b) bias-adjusted simulations. Building the Columbia Basin-Boundary Region's Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change. A primary motivation for the study was to support planning at geographic scales ranging from relatively small river basins (e.g., planning studies in individual sub-basins, such as the Yakima or Okanagan basins) to main-stem planning studies for the CRB as a whole (e.g., planning studies for the Columbia River hydro system). The same basic effects are seen in the SWE2PR maps, where snowmelt remains dominant in the northern tip of the CRB even at the end of the twenty-first century, whereas in the US portions of the domain there are widespread transformations of mixed-rain-and-snow river basins to rain-dominant basins and snowmelt-dominant basins to mixed-rain-and-snow basins. What Makes The Columbia River Basin Unique and How We Benefit Fig. NWAC Softball: Lower Columbia splits double-header at Yakima Valley to Fig. Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Register to receive personalised research and resources by email. .. slide 2 of 5. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. It reaches a thickness estimated at 16,000 feet in places. Glacier outlines are automatically generated from satellite imagery and are provided by, Species and Ecosystems at Risk as identified by the, Current bioclimates and modeled bioclimates for three future climate scenarios in 2080s. In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). The Columbia Basin Climate Source is your one-stop destination for information about climate change, impacts, and action in this region. Small black dots indicate streamflow sites where naturalized flows were not available. The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 C (5.0 C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. Summary information and statistics: geographic location, basin area, calibration statistics (if available), links to the USGS or ECAN websites, and so forth. Nestled in the sunny climate of The Dalles, Oregon just 1.5 hours east of Portland Columbia Basin Care offers around-the-clock medical care, private and semi-private rooms, fresh and nutritious . Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Downscaling simulations of future global climate with application to hydrologic modeling, Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States Pacific Northwest. The PET increases over most of the PNW in summer as a result of rising temperatures; however, AET is reduced in all but a few areas of the domain because AET is water limited and summer precipitation decreases in the simulations. All of the meteorological forcing data, except wind speed, are reproduced in the output files produced by the hydrologic model. From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. A family of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios used in the IPCC effort (Nakienovi et al. The smallest of these sub-basins is about 500km2 (approximately fifteen 1/16 degree VIC cells), and the largest encompasses most of the CRB (approximately 620,000km2 or about 18,800 VIC cells). (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Instead our primary goal was to encompass the approximate range of all available scenarios while reducing costs by downscaling projections from a subset of the larger group of 20 GCMs (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Although these ongoing research and outreach efforts had already laid an extensive foundation in support of pilot climate services in the PNW, starting in 20062007 it was realized that a much more comprehensive and focused effort to provide hydrologic climate change scenarios was needed if stakeholders and water professionals in the region were to take the next steps in preparing for climate change. Read on for information on our current project. The most sensitive basins are mixed-rain-and-snow basins. Weather for Monday, Feb. 27. Bias-corrected streamflow values are useful in water planning studies, especially for providing inputs to reservoir operations models that are calibrated on a particular naturalized or modified flow dataset (e.g., Hamlet, Lee, et al., Citation2010b; NWPCC, Citation2005; Vano et al., Citation2010). An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climat . : From Icefield to Estuary: The Columbia Basin / Du champ de glace l'estuaire : Le bassin du Columbia, 6 Use of products and information by stakeholders, water professionals, and researchers, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2013.819555, http://cses.washington.edu/cig/res/ia/waccia.shtml, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00417.1, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/products/sites/, doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1994)033<0140:ASTMFM>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1998)079<2715:IMOET>2.0.CO;2, http://warm.atmos.washington.edu/2860/report/, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2002)128:2(91), doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1999)125:6(333), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2, doi:10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2009)135:6(440), doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<2313:SOTEHS>2.0.CO;2, http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<1069:APICOW>2.0.CO;2, http://www.nwcouncil.org/energy/powerplan/5/, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1997)078<2771:TDOENO>2.0.CO;2, http://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/newsrelease/detail.cfm?RecordID=39123, http://www.usbr.gov/pn/programs/climatechange/reports/index.html, http://www.fws.gov/landscape-conservation/lcc.html, http://www.ecy.wa.gov/biblio/1112011.html, Medicine, Dentistry, Nursing & Allied Health, Simulated daily evapotranspiration from all sources, actual evaporation from all sources (canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soil, transpiration, and snow sublimation), natural vegetation, no water limit, but no vegetation stomatal resistance, Extreme 7-day low flow value with a 10-year recurrence interval. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. Each of the six panels in the figure shows the long-term monthly mean for the 10 (9 for B1) HD GCM scenarios (red lines) and the historical simulations (blue lines). By closing this message, you are consenting to our use of cookies. Highs in the lower to mid 40s. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010). But as researchers continue to fine tune climate models, shifting demand for water now must be accounted for, say Washington State University scientists. The first nine months of the dataset were used for hydrologic model spin-up, resulting in 91 water years (OctoberSeptember) of usable historical data from the hydrologic model simulations. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA, Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for California hydrology and water resources, The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions determine winners and losers among trout species under climate change, Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Projected changes in climate, snowpack, evapotranspiration and streamflow in the Canadian portion of the Columbia River basin, The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model, A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain, Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern U.S, Multi-objective global optimization for hydrological models. (2005). The Red Devils dropped the first game of the double-header 11-3 in five innings before . Monthly hydrographs in different portions of the domain primarily reflect changes in snow accumulation and melt processes and seasonal changes in precipitation (generally wetter falls, winters, and springs and drier summers). (Citation2010) over the entire PNW (Tohver et al. Columbia Basin Care is the region's only independent nonprofit skilled nursing facility for long-term care and short-term rehabilitation. Red dots indicate sites that are essentially unimpaired by human use or for which there is estimated modified* or naturalized flow. Size, however, is only one aspect of what makes the river particularly unique. In addition, some observed streamflow data are suitable for use as natural data if the effects of storage and diversions are relatively small (e.g., for the USGS Hydro-Climatic Data Network streamflow sites). The two time periods also represent very different patterns of decadal climate variability in the historical record, providing a useful test in the context of simulating a changing climate. Fig. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Originating in British Columbia, it flows 1,214 miles to the Pacific Ocean near Astoria, Oregon. The six panels display results from the combination of three time periods (rows) and two emissions scenarios (columns) used in the HD downscaling process. 135 0 obj <>stream The Climate Resilience Program helps communities in the Basin become more climate resilient by supporting large-scale, multi-year, shovel-ready climate mitigation, adaptation, and resilience projects that address sources of climate change or manage the risks of climate change impacts. By the end of the twenty-first century, essentially the entire state is classified as rain-dominant for the A1B scenario, and the B1 scenario is only slightly different (Fig. Other climate change studies on the Columbia River and its sub-basins followed (Cohen, Miller, Hamlet, & Avis, Citation2000; Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet, Citation2003, Citation2011; Hamlet, Lee, Mickelson, & Elsner, Citation2010b; Lee, Fitzgerald, Hamlet, & Burges, Citation2011; Lee, Hamlet, Fitzgerald, & Burges, Citation2009; NWPCC, Citation2005; Payne, Wood, Hamlet, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004; Snover, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2003; Vano et al., Citation2010). Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Changes in snowpack are a key driver of hydrologic impacts in the PNW (Elsner et al., Citation2010; Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation1999b). National Weather Service The dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. In relatively wet and cool areas along the coast and at high elevation in the northern parts of the basin, summer AET is energy limited; therefore, rising temperatures result in increases in AET. Columbia Basin Care Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. Fig. Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. 2013. A remote sensing approach, The NorWeST Summer Stream Temperature Model and Scenarios for the Western U.S.: A Crowd-Sourced Database and New Geospatial Tools Foster a User Community and Predict Broad Climate Warming of Rivers and Streams, The coastal streamflow flux in the Regional Arctic System Model, Tidal-Fluvial and Estuarine Processes in the Lower Columbia River: II. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). Full knowledge of the preceding steps is not required to use the products obtained at any level of the study, which increases the utility of the products. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Thursday Night Partly cloudy. Peak flows actually increase at many sites in Canada because of increasing fall, winter, and spring precipitation in this part of the domain, although the peak flow also occurs about a month earlier. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. 0 John Day basin century climate change: +1.5 degF day temperature, +3.2 degF night temperature, -0.4 inch (2%) less precipitation. Either naturalized or modified flows (Crook, Citation1993) are used for bias correction of data provided in the site-specific products discussed below, with naturalized data taking precedence if available. Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate The Columbia River basin will see an increase in flooding over the next 50 years as a result of climate change, new modeling from Oregon State University indicates. The MOCOM-UA tool uses an objective function (defined by the user) and a shuffle complex evolution procedure to optimize model calibration parameters to create a set of Pareto (equally) optimal calibration parameters. The CBCCSP also provided a more thorough assessment of hydrologic extremes via the HD scenarios, providing ranges of these values that were more geographically specific as opposed to an estimate of the central tendency from the CD approaches used in the WACCIA. Register a free Taylor & Francis Online account today to boost your research and gain these benefits: An Overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, Methods, and Summary of Key Results, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Earth Sciences , University of Notre Dame , Notre Dame , Indiana , USA, Technical Service Center 86-68210, US Bureau of Reclamation , Denver , Colorado , USA, Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, and Climate Impacts Group , University of Washington , Seattle , Washington , USA, Adaptation to Future Water Shortages in the United States Caused by Population Growth and Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries and Aquaculture of the United States, Climate Change and Future Wildfire in the Western United States: An Ecological Approach to Nonstationarity, Crossscale interactions dictate regional lake carbon flux and productivity response to future climate, Drought Conditions Maximize the Impact of High-Frequency Flow Variations on Thermal Regimes and Biogeochemical Function in the Hyporheic Zone, Fine-scale environmental DNA sampling reveals climate-mediated interactions between native and invasive trout species, Future Climate Change Impacts on Streamflows of Two Main West Africa River Basins: Senegal and Gambia, Geomorphological principles for phased sediment management, How Do Modeling Decisions Affect the Spread Among Hydrologic Climate Change Projections? People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. (2010). The SRES A1B and B1 GHG emissions scenarios (Nakienovi et al. endstream endobj 96 0 obj <. Although this project consists of an abbreviated set of scenarios and products using three scenarios (high, medium, and low impact) for one downscaling method, the CBCCSP played an important role in providing an established set of methods for developing historical driving datasets and implementing and running the hydrologic models. Forest ecosystems, disturbance, and climatic change in Washington State, USA, Regional scale hydrology: I. Formulation of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model, A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Climate change impacts on streamflow extremes and summertime stream temperature and their possible consequences for freshwater salmon habitat in Washington State, Uncertainty in hydrologic impacts of climate change in the Sierra Nevada, California under two emissions scenarios, Uncertainty in projections of streamflow changes due to climate change in California, Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research, Assessing regional impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change: The Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment as a case study, Pacific Northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River basin, Climate-driven variability and trends in mountain snowpack in western North America, Declining mountain snowpack in western North America.